The study by the Australian Medical Journal looked at real data of the infection in Italy to forecast how many Australians will need an intensive care bed in coming weeks.
Anaesthetist Hamish Meares and Macquarie University biostatistician Michael Jones calculated that hospitals would be overwhelmed once the number of infections hits 22,000, due to Australia having an ICU bed capacity of about 2200.
NEW: Modelling shows Aussie ICUs will be over-capacity by 5 April … #preprint #openaccess #COVID19 … "we may face the same fate as Italy, or worse" … https://t.co/Q6yevkwO5L pic.twitter.com/sArNwFaEKG
— MJA (@theMJA) March 26, 2020
While experts say it’s too early to know whether the government’s social distancing measures have had an impact on Australia’s curve of infections, the new research shows Australia’s mortality rate from the coronavirus could be as high as that of Italy if urgent measures are not taken to slow the spread of infection.
“Australia must immediately take all available measures to rapidly decrease the rate of new cases and radically increase the number of ICU beds otherwise we may face the same fate as Italy, or worse,” read the study.
Italy’s death toll from COVID-19 has surged past 8000, with more than 700 people dying in the past 24 hours.
The nation has been unable to “flatten the curve” despite tough measures being gradually rolled out across the country to halt the spread of the virus, including a nationwide lockdown and shutting down all non-essential businesses.
While the fatality rate from the virus is estimated between 1 and 3 per cent, in Italy the mortality rate has climbed as high as 9 per cent.
However, it’s believed the high mortality rate is in part because Italy has focussed its testing only on people showing severe symptoms in areas with high epidemic intensity, meaning the numbers are not representative of the entire infected population.
