While it’s impossible to put a date to it, researchers from the American Enterprise Institute have sought to answer the question of how we will know when it’s the right time for countries to reopen.
A report by Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and Crystal Watson provides “a road map for navigating through the current COVID-19 pandemic in the United States”.
“We outline the steps that can be taken as epidemic transmission is brought under control in different regions,” says the report.
“These steps can transition to tools and approaches that target those with infection rather than mitigation tactics that target entire populations in regions where transmission is widespread and not controlled.
“We suggest measurable milestones for identifying when we can make these transitions and start reopening America for businesses and families.”
The report outlines four phases:
- Slow the spread
- State-by-state reopening
- Establish immune protection and lift physical distancing
- Rebuild readiness for the next pandemic
Phase one is the current phase of the COVID-19 response. So how do we know when we’re ready to move into phase two?
The researchers outlined four markers for when a state could start to ‘reopen’:
- A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days (i.e. one incubation period)
- Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalisation without resorting to crisis standards of care. This means having enough beds, ventilators and staff
- The state has the ability to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms
- The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts, with at-risk people going into isolation or quarantine
Once these benchmarks have been reached, the researchers say the majority of schools, universities and businesses can reopen. People should still work from home where possible, and there should still be limits in place to prevent people congregating in close proximity. The report says people aged over 60 and those with underlying health conditions should still limit time in the community.
According to the report, the trigger for moving to phase three, where physical distancing measures are lifted, is when a vaccine has been developed and tested for safety and efficacy, or there are other therapeutic options that can be used for preventive or treatment indications.
