Using a new method, developed by researchers at CNRS, the University of Southampton and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, a new study shows that at the global level, 2018-2022 may be an even hotter period than expected based on current global warming.
Warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is not linear: it appears to have lapsed in the early 21st century, a phenomenon known as a global warming hiatus.
The new method does not use traditional simulation techniques but has proved to be at least equivalent to current methods, particularly for the purpose of simulating the global warming hiatus of the beginning of this century.
According to the new method, air temperatures may be abnormally high in 2018 – 2022. This is due to a low probability of extreme cold events, and a high probability of heat events. Tropical storm activity may also increase due to these conditions.
In future, scientists would like to use the method to adapt it to make regional predictions and also estimate precipitation and drought trends.
For now, it looks like we better get used to a little more sun.
