A few years ago, well before the doom and gloom of the ‘global financial crisis’, The Future Laboratory directors briefed a small selection of their luxury retail clients on retail trends of the future. 

They suggested consumers would shy away from bling, sparkles and Beyonce in a giant champagne glass in favour of "Austerity" and "New Modest".  The suggestion was met with scepticism (understandably) because the retail industry was at the height of its hedonistic pre-recession days, with no downturn in sight. But it is uncanny how sage this advice now seems.

The Future Laboratory, founded in 2001 by Chris Sanderson and Martin Raymond, is a London-based agency specialising in trend forecasting, consumer insight and brand strategy.  The agency works with a range of well known international clients such as: Lamborghini, Louis Vuitton, Veuve Clicquot, The New Yorker magazine, British Vogue, and a variety of retail, tourism and municipal organizations including the Melbourne City Council.  

Their involvement with each client varies but internationally the agency has developed a reputation as leaders in ‘trend forecasting’. A service that, for many, maintains a certain mythical aura due to forecasters purportedly able to define what consumers and pop culture enthusiasts will demand in years to come. 

However, Martin Raymond suggests forecasting is by no means guess work but rather follows a logical formula: “We work with around 40 correspondents globally”, whom are tapped for observations on their community and locale.  They are then required to report back to The Future Lab on hot new things, products, people and events. 

Raymond, a former journalist and broadcaster in the cultural sector, prefers to use journalists rather than marketers as the agency’s principal researchers “because journalists tend to look at the world and pose questions about the cause [of certain anomalies to the status quo], rather than only look at the consequence”.

Once their correspondents have reported back the agency asks a panel of specialists involved in a specific industry to un-pack the journalists’ observations. If the topic was food this panel might include a scientist, anthropologist, chef, fresh-produce retailer and nutritionist.  They are invited to discuss what is happening in the industry and consider certain trends from an historical and/or sociological point of view. As well as current habits of the generation likely to be the principal consumers in coming years. 

Raymond calls this method of working simply “preparedness”, which is to say it is common sense. 

The Future Lab is in Australia this month to present their annual ‘Trend Briefing’ to clients, and a ticketed audience in Sydney and Melbourne, following a year long hiatus from the country due to a busy last year. During which time they launched their latest web-based forecasting resource LS:N. The website combines the agency’s myriad of research, forecasting briefings, publishing initiatives (Viewpoint and The magazines) and design & trend analysis. 

Since arriving in Australia, Raymond has observed that the local retail sector seems to be “suffering from a crisis of confidence”, despite the market not yet at the low level of the UK retail sector. “Consumers still seem to be buying in the high and middle end, unlike in the UK where consumers have turned to the bargain stores such as Primark.  Nonetheless, “Sydney and Melbourne seem to be stalling” as though retailers are waiting to see what will happen in the centres that have become focal points for contemporary Australia, specifically Hong Kong, Seoul, LA, and to a certain extent New York.  

Raymond believes there is potential for buoyancy in the retail and hospitality industries in Australia, but only if they start changing their market focal points and consider the ramifications of the economic crisis.

He highlights a few key trends that will assist in this redirection.  Consider ‘Bleisure’ - the splicing of business and leisure - a term The Future Lab coined to describe a phenomenon  emerging as the "first-wave" Y generation (those in their late 20s early 30s) start to assert themselves as forces in the global market. 

This is the generation who grew up embracing organic food, the local pub on the corner rather than big clubs, bespoke fashion and email!  Thus, they are the generation who will typically mix business (usually conducted outside of the boardroom) with down-time.  Raymond points to a cluster of new hotels around the world who have picked up on this,  citing Mama Shelter - located in the 20th arrondissement of Paris, the new up-and-coming area outside of the gentrified city walls - as an example.

Founded by the Trigano family (of Club-Med fame) and French philosopher Cyril Aouizerate, the hotel's interior has been designed by Philippe Starck to reflect the quirky, hip and eclectic aesthetic of a traveller whom can run their company from a laptop. The details are luxurious -100% cotton sheets, Apple Mac Screens that double as TV and computer - but the price is affordable, which is necessary for those without a corporate gold card.  What’s more, the atmosphere is ideal for people who ‘do business’ over a drink with buddies and include a little networking on the side.

Raymond offers another example as an insight into how the hospitality industry will capture the ADD imaginations of the facebook / myspace generation whom he believes “consider everyone as friends or fans”.  They may know hundreds by name but few intimately.

Danny Meyer, the brains behind the reputable Union Square Hospitality Group in New York, including the famous Union Square Café and The Modern at MoMA, reputedly takes his staff to an old Irish pub downtown so they can experience ‘real service’.  The old fashioned variety which entails the barman knowing not just your name, but your wife and family’s, and whether you lost money on the last ball game or are having a few problems at work.  To top it off he will usually shout you the first drink of the night if you’ve had a bad day. 

With this approach one’s drinking spot becomes an extension of the living-room, and it is this Meyer is trying to instill in his cafes and restaurants. The facebook generation have their favourite spots and these they consider friends, not just services, and will expect a level of non-intimate familiarity they experience on-line. If they get it they will usually become loyal customers.

When elaborated in such accessible terms the ideas that guide Raymond and Sanderson’s agency seem simple, but they stem from thorough research and market analysis as well as years of experience in the industries they now advise.  Not to mention invaluable tips from a contact-book network that must be one of the heftiest in the creative sector.

For further details on The Future Laboratory's Australian "Global Trend Briefings" visit: www.thefuturelaboratory.com