As global warming fears escalate, the old real estate adage, “location, location, location” takes on new meaning. More than ever, people are leaving their home countries for reasons unrelated to jobs or neighbourhoods. They’re leaving because of fears of sudden or ongoing environmental changes. And they're becoming environmental migrants in the process.
Climate change is causing the number of eco-migrants around the world to continue to grow, with conservative estimates predicting that there could be at least 200 million eco-migrants by 2050. However, some scientists suggest the number of eco-migrants could reach as high as 1 billion, depending on a wide array of factors that influence families to move.
Risk alone prompts many migrants to move within their home countries: The cost of hurricane or flood insurance may strain an already-overstretched family budget, prohibiting the sentimental value of familiarity from outweighing the potential cost incurred by preparing for, and responding to, extensive damages.
Many families, however, have no choice: Floods, heat, deforestation, drought and famine have pushed millions of people around the world from their homes.
These environmental disasters are only expected to increase in number and intensity in the future, causing devastating natural disasters in port cities and increasing the scarcity of natural resources. Rising sea levels, due, in part, to widespread glacial melting, threaten over 634 million people in coastal areas around the world. Based on population density alone, Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Beijing face the largest impact, though other big cities such as New York, Tokyo, Jakarta, and Dhaka are vulnerable as well.
Though some areas will enjoy better land quality, many others will see conditions worsen. This will not only increase the rate of migration, but also increase the scarcity of food and water: Officials fear that as the number of eco-migrants rises, tensions will also increase as more people share a piece of land and fight to feed their families.
The amount of natural resources, food, water, and social services around the world will be both compressed and compromised.
It doesn’t always take an imminent threat to convince a family to move. Sometimes, it’s a question of ideals. A neighbouring nation’s environmental policies may be more in line with a family’s core values. For instance, New Zealand’s strong environmental policies – in addition to its explicit dedication to renewable energy sources - make it a popular destination for eco-migrants.
Fortunately, many vulnerable countries are already forming action plans and preparing for future evacuations - with small island nations prime among them. The island nations of Kiribati and Maldives are working to establish funds to buy land on which their people can establish new homelands – the president of Kiribati is even going so far as to train his citizens with the skills they need to be productive in their new countries. The small island of Tuvalu has an agreement with New Zealand for a phased relocation of its people; many of Kiribati’s people have already migrated there. As the head of a predominantly Muslim country, the president of Maldives has distinguished Sri Lanka and India as refugee havens.
Some states, however, refuse to budge both physically and philosophically. In response several low-lying island nations to form the Alliance of Small Island States, which has pressed industrialised nations to reduce emissions and, in so doing, curb global warming.
While scientists are still unsure about how fast climate change will progress, most agree it is happening and will affect millions of people every year. Policymakers need to find a way to reduce or lessen the impact of eco-migration on global systems, first and foremost by taking action to stop climate change in its tracks.
Kathleen Rogers is the President of the Earth Day Network.
Washington Post article
New York Times article
MSNBC story
International Organization for Migration
